INTERVIEWS AHEAD OF KRYNICA FORUM 2023

Krzysztof Wojczal, a geopolitical analyst: Interest in global affairs is now widespread

‘The Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom and sovereignty from Russia, but in fact you need to look at this war from the Western-struggle-against-the-Russian-Federation angle. You need to acknowledge that NATO is in conflict – though not in direct war – with the Russian Federation. Stating this is needed to neutralise Russian propaganda and thwart Moscow in conflict escalation,’ says Krzysztof Wojczal, a geopolitical analyst, krzysztofwojczal.pl blog author, Krynica Forum 2022 panellist, who confirmed he was poised to take part in this year’s edition too.

 
Today in Poland, geopolitics is the hot topic in shops, at workplace, during family gatherings. We’ve turned – as the joke goes – into a nation of forty million geopoliticians?

Indeed, we are watching the geopolitics become massively popular. Just as it is with football, where many fans are convinced they would make the best coaches and managers, when it comes to global affairs, there are people who turn into geopolitical pundits after seeing a video or two.

For what reason?

For the fact that Poland is close to key global events, the present war in Ukraine among them. Interest in geopolitics grew after the first invasion on Ukraine in 2014. After 2022, the interest in this matter is now widespread. Notably, over the last thirty years there has been a lot of war and chaos in the world, but all of it may have seemed to be happening far away, not concerning us. This case is different.

Could the war in Ukraine have been predicted?

I managed to do it, although it needs to be stated there are no fortune-tellers. For instance, one can imagine that from this day forward none of my predictions come true. The factors impacting the events and the decisions of particular people are so numerous that there is no chance of taking them all into account. You can only make a stab at noticing the ones that count the most. Which is not easy.

What should we do in this situation? What do we need to be ready for to save Ukraine as we are taking care of our own safety?

This here is the primary question which the Poles should now be searching an answer to. Knowing what threats lie in a possible Ukraine’s defeat, we need to consider in a calm and collected way how much we are able to risk to prevent that. In my assessment, we need to be ready for the scenario of Poland – along with other states, the US included – sending its soldiers to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping-armistice mission. Not in order to start a war with Russia but to suppress the conflict in Ukraine or to avoid its re-escalation after a possible truce.

What should be Poland’s geopolitical priorities in its eastern policy?

As of now, the priorities seem obvious. Ukraine’s path to NATO and the European Union needs to be supported. We can’t let Russians occupy Kyiv. We have to think long term at the same time. Build an army with high-level potential, one able to deter enemies, to defend country borders, but also… to send robust expeditions abroad. Polish Armed Forces ought to become Warsaw’s political instrument in the sense of letting our Polish partners in the east feel our support in terms of security. Poland that has a strong army will also be climbing higher in the hierarchy of US allies, which would translate into politics and could pave the way to making the alliance with the United States more beneficial.

Your book #This Is Our War, referring to the current events in Ukraine, has recently been published. Does it summarise your thoughts to date on the situation in the east?

The book contains analyses, forecasts, then-current commentaries written with the March 2023 state of play in mind. I would also like to emphasise the thesis present in the very title. The Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom and sovereignty from Russia, but in fact you need to look at this war from the Western-struggle-against-the-Russian-Federation angle. You need to acknowledge that NATO is in conflict – though not in direct war – with the Russian Federation. Stating this is needed to neutralise Russian propaganda and thwart Moscow in conflict escalation. Russia must believe we are ready for anything.

The 2023 Krynica Forum participants are also going to ponder the phenomenon of widely shared interest in geopolitics. You took part in this spa-town forum in 2022, and you are going to come there once again in September. Is it a good space for discussion and idea exchange?

Definitely. A year ago, I had the opportunity to get to know many interesting people and share insights with them; I’m banking on meetings being just as fruitful this year too.

Krzysztof Wojczal is going to take part in the geopolitics debate within the Strategy Security thematic stream during the Krynica Forum 2023.