INTERVIEWS AHEAD OF KRYNICA FORUM 2023

Prof. Agnieszka Orzelska-Stączek on the future of the Three Seas: When facing war, you cannot separate the economy and security

‘Russian aggression in Ukraine has made the Three Seas Initiative, focused on economic and infrastructural co-operation, emphasise the region’s security more and more,’ remarks Prof. Agnieszka Orzelska-Stączek from the Institute of Political Studies at the Polish Academy of Sciences, head of the Three Seas Initiative Research Center under the PAS IPS.

 
What is the Three Seas Initiative Research Center’s remit?

It’s a project pursued at the Institute of Political Studies at the Polish Academy of Sciences, initiated in September 2022, financed as part of the Science for Society programme by the Ministry of Education and Science. In the project, we are exploring the progress of scientific research and promoting the knowledge on regional co-operation. Let me remind you that the Three Seas Initiative comprises twelve European Union member states and is meant to spur the development of the region between the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black Seas.

What kind of co-operation do we mean?

The regional kind, mostly in the economic dimension, based on the three pillars of infrastructure growth – transport-, energy-, and digital-related. As part of the Research Center, we wish to underscore the need to develop the academic co-operation, idea exchange, networking among academics and experts, research units and social-economic entities all across the Three Seas region.

Is the Three Seas a competitor for the EU structures? Or should this project be considered a particular voice, adding to the discussion on key topics?

I would like to underline this forcefully: The Three Seas Initiative is supposed to strengthen the relations within the European Union; this is one of its main cooperative goals. In no way, shape, or form is it a competition to the EU workflows and has never been. Its aim is to deepen the relations inside the Union and to counteract the entrenched divisions between the richer, better developed – especially in infrastructural terms – Western Europe and the EU’s eastern part. This form of collaboration is ultimately meant to make the Union stronger by prompting the economic growth of its eastern part. This precondition is repeated in each and every summit’s declaration. It is those who oppose this form of co-operation that spew the narrative that it allegedly intends to form a competition to the EU, but it’s far from the truth. All the Three Seas Initiative states are part of the EU, and it is their priority and a pillar of their safety to remain so.

Did Russia’s aggression in Ukraine have any upshot on the Three Seas project? Has the initiative been losing its momentum in the current circumstances or maybe the other way round, is there a fresh reason to bolster the collaboration?

A year ago, the Riga summit declaration had many states jointly dedicate a lot of space to condemning Russia’s actions. The stipulation that the parties unequivocally condemn the Russian aggression in Ukraine is there, urging Russia to cease its attacks on the infrastructure and the civilian population. A brutal war that Russia unleashed in Ukraine has shown how critical the aims and projects promoted by the Three Seas Initiative are. They serve to build up the strategic resilience to threats of various dimensions, serve to the interests of the Initiative member states and are part and parcel of both Central Europe’s and the whole EU’s interests. For Ukraine itself, the Three Seas Initiative is one of the paths to build up its relations with the European Union and NATO. In June 2022, Ukraine achieved the status of a 3SI participating partner. The Russian aggression did change a lot, when it comes to Ukraine’s co-operation with the states that push the project.

As regards the war in the east, is the security issue coming to the fore as another co-operation sphere for the initiative?

The economy-focused Three Seas Initiative was to be complementary to the Bucharest Nine, launched in parallel. B9 is a separate arrangement of nine NATO countries, which was to be active in the security sphere, while the 3SI zeroed in on the economic co-operation. Yet, Russia’s aggression made the security issues more prominent, and this topic has now been to the fore in the Three Seas Initiative, in particular in the domains of energy security, cybersecurity, and economic security. Subsequent declarations include it as a main point. You cannot separate the economy and security. The areas mesh a lot.

The Three Seas Investment Fund was set up to support the Initiative, as an investment tool for financing the key infrastructural projects in the region. Is the fund’s operation resulting in the right kind of outcomes?

Various investments have already been backed by the fund. The money was used by such entities as: Cargo Units from Poland, Green Energy Data Center from Estonia, Austria-based Enery, operating in Central and Eastern Europe, BMF Port Burgas – an operator of the Bulgarian port of Burgas. Still, the fund is not a subsidy instrument, it follows economic principles, which at times is a source of misunderstanding. The Fund is discharging its duties well, but its means are limited, currently about a billion euro, while its plans would need three billion. Not a sum that would fulfil the region’s needs, thus the role of the fund is limited. Perhaps the discussion about a supplemental financial tool that would answer the Three Seas project states’ big needs is afoot.

Prof. Agnieszka Orzelska-Stączek is going to participate in the Krynica Forum 2023 and will take the floor in the discussion on Three Seas future.