INTERVIEWS AHEAD OF KRYNICA FORUM 2023

Bolesław Piasecki, PhD: ICT systems and military equipment should be seen as a whole

‘Absent the proper support from the software, artificial intelligence, and integrated systems, even the best hardware is unable to work with full efficiency’ – says Bolesław Piasecki, PhD, the director of post-graduate Secret Services studies at the War Studies University, who is going to take part in a discussion at KRYNICA FORUM 2023.

 
Cybersecurity and digital warfare are notions that have been present in the public discourse for a few years. How would you explain the role of software in gaining advantages during a war?

The use of modern technologies on the battlefield helps achieve two sorts of results. First, on the basis of the data which we already have and which is gathered by the existing sensors, detectors, and various devices tasked with analysing the world around us – e.g. photos shared on social media, drone recordings, satellite images – software makes it possible to tease out correlations that a human can’t catch, and from this it can proactively suggest certain solutions. The second type of software-induced advantage is process automation.

In what way?

AI is able to quickly recognise events or enemy forces in a way that allows for mass data processing. In short, on the one hand it is able to draw conclusions from past data, which are gathered in traditional security systems, on the other hand, with the use of emerging technologies, such as e.g. imagery intelligence, AI makes it possible to recognise images, equipment, people fast, and even to suggest the proposed directions and variants of action, which in turn makes it possible to build an operational advantage over the enemy, both in analysis speed, and in the actions proposed.

Only advantages so far, what about the threats? We all remember the first months after the war in Ukraine broke out, when military equipment began to be transported eastwards across Poland. People were then urged not to publish the photos of such transports in social media.

In fact, photos that crop up in social media, for instance, are assessed by algorithms and modern technologies, which makes it feasible to determine when they were taken, what they show. On this basis, it was possible to assess what forces and means are moved to Ukraine. The Internal Security Agency actions are a case in point, as it broke up a spy ring monitoring critical infrastructure, including ports and rail hubs, for military transports. No, uploading photos of this kind, especially as it happens, is definitely not a good idea. Don’t make the task easier for the adversary.

Can ICT systems in the 21st century turn out to be more important than military equipment in waging warfare? Is Ukraine defying Russia thanks to modern technologies?

Currently, the dichotomy between software and hardware is a false one. Absent the proper support from the software, artificial intelligence, and integrated systems, even the best hardware is unable to work with full efficiency. And of course software itself without equipment isn’t able to carry out its mission to ensure state security, either. Actually, these are two sides of the same coin. This interlocking of old devices and new technology, as we can see, is becoming more important. We can imagine older types of equipment, 30, 40 years old, which are not fitted with state-of-the-art tech in themselves, but can well be used in the broader context of new technology and remain its important element. ICT systems and military equipment should be understood as a whole. One cannot exist without the other. One won’t effectively function on the battlefield without the other.

Let’s try to give an example of such a retrofit of a modern technology environment with old equipment. When I see a rifle, I’m not thinking about software and AI…

The ability to take satellite imagery is not a new thing. Contemporary technological capacity, even commercially available, allow us to take satellite photos regularly and recognise a given type of military equipment. Back in the day, an analyst had to peer at the pictures and personally – often almost pixel by pixel – interpret the data and information. Now they have the technology that might not so much do this work for them as support and automate the work.

How so?

Technology can, e.g., suggest that a photo of a particular location shows a significant change, and twenty new aeroplanes were added. On the basis of such knowledge, we can set tasks for other types of assets, old-school spies, or analyse information coming from, e.g., radars, to assess what really happened and whether the enemy relocated their air force unit. Such information, integrated with other data, creates a coherent picture which allows us to plan operations the smart way.

We are bombarded with information left, right, and centre…

That’s true: the main problem is not that there is no information but that there is too much of it, with no way of knowing which is valuable, and time flies. In addition, the information is stored in various places and systems. Why weren’t US secret services able to prevent the 9/11 attacks? There was, in a system, the information that such attacks with the use of planes were planned, and in another system there was the information that a group of people were taking pilot training courses, focusing only on take-offs, not learning to land. Both datapoints, scattered over different state security systems, would have let the right conclusions be drawn had they been put together. The key thing is thus quick information processing, combining it into a whole, and reaching conclusions.

There is also the issue of services and other actors sharing their information.

The access problem and the so-called need-to-know basis is always a balancing act between co-operation, information sharing to get the full picture of the situation, and information security, secrecy that must be maintained.

Will the uncrewed autonomous platforms and automated combat, command, communication systems, capable of analysing the data and drawing conclusions, change the face of the armed forces?

Some form of automation is bound to be necessary. The key is to keep the human in the driver’s seat in this process. Technology should aid, inform, advise people, but a human should be the decider.

Bolesław Piasecki, PhD, the director of post-graduate Secret Services studies at the War Studies Academy, will be a Krynica Forum 2023 guest.